Global pay TV revenues will peak in 2017, but will not decline rapidly in the five years afterwards due to gains in Asia, Africa and the Middle East, according to new research.
The Digital TV Research report states that pay TV revenues will reach US $202 billion worldwide this year but will remain as high as US $200 billion (€184 billion) in 2022 – despite a loss in revenues in North America and Europe.
Between 2016 and 2022 the research predicts that pay TV revenues will fall by a massive US $12 billion in North America, will be down US $566 million in Western Europe and will fall by US $28 million in Eastern Europe.
However, Asia Pacific – which overtook Western Europe in 2013 – is expected to record a US $5.75 billion increase in pay TV revenues.
Sub-Saharan African pay TV revenues are tipped to climb by US $2.40 billion and Middle East and North African (MENA) revenues by US $0.59 billion between 2016 and 2022.
Sub-Saharan Africa passed MENA in 2016 and will overtake Eastern Europe in 2021, according to the report.
“Revenues will more than double for 13 countries between 2016 and 2022. India will add the most revenues by some distance, with China also recording impressive gains. Asia will account for seven of the top 10 gainers,” said Digital TV Research principal analyst, Simon Murray.
In 2022, the research tips North America to account for 47.5% of global pay TV revenues, down from the 58.3% in 2010.
Between 2016 and 2022 global analogue cable revenues are expected to fall by US $8.77 billion and digital cable TV revenues by US $3.14 billion.
Over the same period IPTV revenues are expected to climb by US $2.34 billion and satellite by US $6.66 billion – more than any other platform.
The Digital TV Research report – covering 138 countries – notes that global analog cable revenues will fall by $8.77 billion between 2016 and 2022 – not surprising given the switch-off of most of the remaining subscribers. However, digital cable TV revenues will also fall – by US $3.14 billion. This is due mainly to subscribers converting from standalone status to bundles, which provide higher overall revenues for operators but lower TV ones.
IPTV revenues will climb by US $2.34 billion. Satellite TV will add more than any other platform – US $6.66 billion – to reach US $89 billion while satellite TV [DTH or DBS] revenues will overtake total cable TV revenues in 2020, having passed digital cable a year earlier.